My impression is that the economy grew extremely fast due almost entirely to the computer hardware/software industry. Obviously, many non-tech companies also benefit from the tech industry doing well since there's a lot of services and goods needed to support the growth of the tech industry. There were several factors that I see that led to such a huge expansion of tech jobs and high salaries, and all of these factors coincided at about the same time. Y2K: There was a lot of money spent upgrading hardware and software. There was also a lot of money spent on consultants and other support companies to facilitate the upgrade. Many systems were upgraded even though they were already Y2K compliant, just to bring everything up to the same performance level. The Internet: Every commercial a couple years back had a URL splashed on the screen. Nearly everyone thought that the Internet was going to be this amazing thing that revolutionized the world. Everyone thought they could make a ton of money by simply selling their product over the web. Everyone that didn't already have a computer thought that they needed to get a computer so they too could do whatever it was that everyone else was doing on the Internet. So what does Joe User do with his fancy computer and Internet access? He reads and writes email. Maybe if he's really advanced then he checks movie times or the latest sport scores on the Web. Woopteedoo. Before you try to flame me on this point, realize that you are not "Joe User." You're on a Linux mailing list and that puts you far, far outside the average. Probably the most useful feature of the web to me is that I can easily make plane reservations (not that I can afford to travel anymore like I did during the dotcom days, but that's beside the point). So there have been some nice benefits, but hardly anything earth-shattering. Hardware performance: Several years ago you could go into a computer store, take a computer home and actually notice some difference in the performance compared your old system. So let's say Joe User buys the latest and greatest Pentium 933 THz computer. Does he notice any big difference in how his apps run from his old 350MHz system? Nope. Not unless he plays a lot of games. So for almost every software category except games, the hardware has vastly exceeded the demands of the software. Computer hardware is now become a commodity and the profit margins are next to nothing. The server market is somewhat different, but it's quickly being marginalized as well as the performance from relatively cheap Intel chips continues to increase and push the more expensive players, such as Sun, into an ultra high-end niche market. There are a lot of other minor contributors as well, such as money being invested in companies with no good business plan. There was also an extreme waste of money during the dotcom days of a year or two ago. I worked for two companies that would spend exorbitant amounts of money on all sorts of unnecessary purchases, all because they thought that their pot of gold would never run out. I'm going to really exaggerate and overgeneralize things here and say that no one buys software anymore (except games). Have you been to an Office Depot lately to see the software choices? Almost nothing of interest. MS Office, while a fine product, is horrendously expensive if you didn't already get it for free with your computer (or swiped a copy from work). So the software industry is pretty much dead, in my opinion. Microsoft will probably be one of a handful of software companies still standing in the next several years. Not because they make good software, but because they're big enough and wealthy enough to survive longer than the rest. But they too will have to soon make dramatic cuts in their workforce to survive. They're losing money on X-box and customers aren't interested in upgrading their MS software (and probably couldn't afford it anyway) anymore. Microsoft is sort of a macro-example of what we're going through. They too were in the right place at the right time and made several business choices that brought them to this point. But they can't keep up the same levels of financial growth any longer. And there will never be another Microsoft because the factors that brought them where they are now won't happen again as far as I can tell. So where'd all those computer jobs go? They were never really there. It's not the fault of our government or anyone else for running the economy into the ground. We're in a recession. And we'll continue to be in a recession until things return to the levels they were before Y2K, The Internet, and Hardware blew things way out of proportion. It was a bubble of extreme wealth where a lot of things happened together at the right time, but it's over now. In any case, I wish everyone that's been laid-off (including myself) the best of luck finding a new job. You might seriously look at going back to school to try your hand at a different profession. Right now there are too many people looking for tech jobs and there will most likely never be enough jobs to satisfy them all. ~M On Tue, 4 Dec 2001, Nancy Sollars wrote: > Hi Guys, > > Well looks like this down turn in economy has bitten once more ... Ive just had a nice chat with my wife and it seems the only choice ive got is to go and get a job at a fast food restuarant .. > > > not being funny but i could have dont this back in Bristol.. Since the economy in the US at the moment sucks so bad im seriously considering going back to the UK, I think someone up top should get a reality check and start reading their book on how to run a country cause im sure im not the only one being driven to such extremes. > > With all my experiance and stuff in IT there is no way in hell im going to flip burgers it would make no sense of the money and effort spent on training and courses by myself back in the UK. > > How do you all feel about the current situation? > > Nige >