On Tuesday 09 December 2003 21:13, frankburton@cox.net wrote:
> I was just wondering what you guys thought of this article.
> http://businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/dec2003/sb2003122_8887.htm
>
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     Lots of good comments in this thread. I'll add a few small thoughts.=
=2E.
     I've been in the software industry since '72 and in those 30+ years,=
 I've=20
gone through some fairly significant changes in which technical area I wa=
s=20
able to claim some expertise. Each "phase" lasted 5-10 years at the end o=
f=20
which I had to figure out a new way to capitalize (sp?) on the skills I t=
hen=20
had and how they could be applied with some amount of retraining. I never=
=20
started over from scratch but, rather, refocused my efforts into what had=
=20
been a small focus and made it my main focus.
     Through this off-shore shift, I am looking for how I can refocus my=20
expertise yet again. At the moment, I run a training business=20
(http://www.rytetyme.com) in the traditional US-centric format. That mean=
s=20
instructor-led, 3-4 day seminars of hands-on programming. In the past (an=
d if=20
you look at places such as Wind River and other "top rung" technology=20
companies that offer training), tuition is calculated as (roughly) $500 p=
er=20
day per person.
     My realities are 1) my target audience is no longer in North America=
, 2)=20
our usual tuition is too much, and 3) the expense of delivering a hands-o=
n=20
class overseas is a lot. We can make some adjustment in each of these thr=
ee=20
areas but, collectively, it's pretty clear there's just not enough slop i=
n=20
the numbers to remain profitable.
     Bottom line: the old business model isn't viable anymore. It (I) nee=
d to=20
change (again). I've been doing this (teaching) for slightly more than te=
n=20
years -- that fits what I've seen for my entire 30+ years so I'm not=20
surprised.
     The main question to ask is, what am I good at that is in high deman=
d=20
that few others can do? Watching where technology is going is important t=
o=20
finding an answer that'll be good for another cycle (of 5-10 years). Linu=
x=20
looks like it has a *very* good future and I'm 95% certain it will be par=
t of=20
my answer but, until I discover that "I'm in the answer now", I can't be=20
sure. I've never actually identified, ahead of time, where I'll be in a=20
couple of years. Rather, it's been a long series of little steps, always=20
watching the environment, that've led me into the next niche.
     To succeed at Blind Man's Bluff, use your other senses.

--=20
Ed Skinner, ed@flat5.net, http://www.flat5.net/